Real Estate Forums

NealRM · 10-29-2007, 01:04 PM

It looks like the market is starting to stablize here. What do you areas look like?

SEOWolf · 10-31-2007, 02:58 PM

Neal we have been indeed fortunate here in Missouri that the sub-prime fiasco never really caught on here and the majority of the mortgages were conventional loans.

Our biggest problem with it here in Columbia Mo is the main stream media making it look like the problem is nationwide.

My wife has written about the perception being worse than the reality in her real estate blog.

I think we are still in for a whole lot of grief through all of next year.

~VegasMack

NealRM · 10-31-2007, 03:34 PM

I agree, the media is follow it's standard policy of "If it bleeds it leads". They could just as easily focus on that it's a good buyers market. But no, they have to keep focusing on the negitive.

It so bad that I'm thinking of have Realtor submit article to me to post on my site. With any luck that will counter some of the negitive media.

jessiesc · 10-31-2007, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NealRM

It so bad that I'm thinking of have Realtor submit article to me to post on my site. With any luck that will counter some of the negitive media.

If you make this happen, I'd be happy to contribute

Our market has not only stabilized but we're seeing increased interest. That's interest, not sales

LVH · 10-31-2007, 07:56 PM

Dont get me wrong I am not a big fan of the media placing their spin on the real estate market BUT I do agree with them.

All over the country we had investors speculating on anything and everything. In 2004 51% of the properties sold in Las Vegas where resold within 90 days. This caused major over inflation of housing prices. These same investors in 2005 still tried to get in on that fast dollar and financed properties using interest only or low rate arms. I know a first time investor in the panhandle of Florida who owns 10 high rise beachfront condos that were purchased with the intent of flipping to make a fast buck who has now had to beg and borrowed everything he can to keep his units from going in to foreclosure yet in all likely hood he is going to lose those units. This guy doesnt work..isnt rich and has 39k per month payments now.

Because of this mortgage lenders are now stuck with these unpayable loans and having to close their doors..Builders over extended their credit lines to build more homes..buyers paid stupid prices that sellers were asking and to be quite honest we as Realtors have to take some of the blame..( I know some of you will say ..well I was only doing what my client ask me to do...this might be so but as an old saying goes.." Its Hard To Get A Man To Understand Something When His Paycheck Depends On Him Not Understanding It"

The RE Markets IMHO will not turn till late 2010. It will take Lenders those that can still keep their doors open at least 2 or 3 years to recover from what we as Realtors and investors filled their books with. Dont get me wrong they made the loans trying to cash in on the boom as well but we all have some blame to accept for the shape the nations real estate housing market is in.

NealRM · 10-31-2007, 08:16 PM

LVH,
what you are saying is true in specific markets. The coasts and big cities saw unrealistic growth in home prices. However, that story is not true everywhere. Many smaller cities saw price growth that was reasonable, in some cases staying even with inflation. However, the talking heads on TV talked about the real estate market as if all the homes were in the same neighborhood.

In general the media took what could have been an adjustment in specific areas and scared the public into making it a nationwide problem.

LVH · 10-31-2007, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NealRM

LVH,
what you are saying is true in specific markets. The coasts and big cities saw unrealistic growth in home prices. However, that story is not true everywhere. Many smaller cities saw price growth that was reasonable, in some cases staying even with inflation. However, the talking heads on TV talked about the real estate market as if all the homes were in the same neighborhood.

In general the media took what could have been an adjustment in specific areas and scared the public into making it a nationwide problem.

I do agree with you and stand corrected. I keep forgetting there are other markets besides big city

but I have an office in a market that would not be considered big city and even though they didnt see the over inflation of home prices they still saw investor frenzy buying and selling everything they could get their hands on with a increase in sales price in a short period of time.

jessiesc · 10-31-2007, 08:32 PM

You both make valid points and strong arguments...

Our market was mostly condo/resort driven. The locals who owned beach front shacks for 40 years sold out for millions to the condo developers and the fever caught on like wild fire. Soon, every one thought their mobile home was worth a fortune and agents were trying to push them off as investments.

Unfortunately, I was not involved in the market as an agent until mid 2005 so I can not say how the market was from that perspective.

However, I was an active investor. I did fine with my strategy. I didn't make a fortune, but I also didn't over extend myself. Anyone with $39k a month worth of mortgages better have a way to pay them. Or they just aren't a very savvy investor.

I'm sorry but that's the investors fault, not the market, mortgage company, agent or seller.

I understand the investor was hoping to 'flip'. I know someone in a similar situation who is a real estate agent, not $39k but $45k worth of debt a month. As a real estate agent they should have known better than to extend themselves into that much debt. When Greed rears its attractive come on, it's hard to resist.

I also disagree that all markets are not seeing signs of stability and come back. IMO, markets are localized and do not reflect national statistics. The large metropolitan cities certainly reflect the national conscience, but not all of the nation nor all of the Real Estate market as a whole.

Thanks for reading

SEOWolf · 10-31-2007, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NealRM

LVH,
what you are saying is true in specific markets. The coasts and big cities saw unrealistic growth in home prices. However, that story is not true everywhere. Many smaller cities saw price growth that was reasonable, in some cases staying even with inflation. However, the talking heads on TV talked about the real estate market as if all the homes were in the same neighborhood.

In general the media took what could have been an adjustment in specific areas and scared the public into making it a nationwide problem.

Well said Neal.

As LVH has inferred the problem is severe in many “Hot Markets”. Markets that saw unsustainable appreciation levels in the past couple of years.

However, like Neal indicates the press would make us all believe this phenomenon occurred Nationally. It did not.

Less than 2% of one percent of sub-prime loans are currently in foreclosure but with consumer confidence driving inventory up and prices down this will soon be considered the “Good Old Days”.

I just wish the media were more straightforward and stop compounding an already serious problem.

~VegasMack

LVH · 11-01-2007, 07:44 AM

Quote:

Less than 2% of one percent of sub-prime loans are currently in foreclosure but with consumer confidence driving inventory up and prices down this will soon be considered the “Good Old Days”.

This morning it was reported on the national news MSN and also CNN that 1 in 96 homes are in foreclosure throughout the US.

Here is what you have contributing to the housing market slump.

1. Lending Issues

2. Over Inflation of home prices still adjusting

3. A National 11.5 months worth of inventory

4. First Time Homebuyers Not Able to acquire home loans

5. Foreclosures Increasing...up 30% from last quarter

6. Presdential Election...Historically housing markets slump some during this time for upcoming first term presidential elections.

7. The War

8. Buyers Sitting On Fence Waiting for further housing price drops.

9. Coastal Cities Insurance Crisis

10. Chapter 7 and 13 BKs up more than 30% from last year.

These are just a few stats that have caused the housing market woes. The lending issue alone will take 2 to 3 years to correct its self. 2008 will also see a lot of those last ditch effort investors who purchased with arms adjusting which will cause more mortgage companies to face further losses.

IMHO this will be the worse cycle we have seen in real estate since the great depression. It would not surprise me if it did not recover till 2011 or 2012.